June 2026 – MikeMeyer.net

With the SpaceX IPO planned for June 11, 2026, you may be wondering if it would be a good idea to buy in at this initial price, estimated at $135 a share, for a $1.7 trillion market cap.

Before you call your broker and sell off other stocks/re-mortgage the house/ cash in your retirement accounts, please do some research. An excellent place to start is the S-1 filing with the SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm, which includes a very extensive (34 pages) section about the risks in this investment, as well as their current cash flow, current sales, etc. There are also a rather large number of pictures of rockets blasting off, just in case that stack of Playboys has lost its luster. It’s probably the best source of truth about the company’s health, but you might need to read between the lines.

Some things to keep in mind:

Morningstar is cautioning that the projected IPO valuation is twice as high as their estimate of the company’s value.
The Dow and S&P 500 announced on June 4 that they will not be changing their rules for index listing for “Mega Cap” companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. This is good news in that your IRAs won’t be forced to buy it for their index funds, at least not until it meets certain requirements.
Fidelity Investments just lowered the minimum account balance for retail customers to participate in the SpaceX IPO. Normally these shares would only be available to customers with over $500,000 in their accounts. However, normally only a small amount of IPO shares (5-10%) are released for retail investors, and SpaceX is going to offer 30% to the retail market. Is it lack of demand from the big investors, a sincere desire to spread the wealth for once, or a desire to cash out on the backs of less-sophisticated investors? Whichever, Fidelity will allow their customers with a minimum of $2,000 to buy shares in the IPO. There are restrictions on selling of these shares, however — Fidelity is enforcing a minimum hold of 15 days before you can sell in order to discourage flipping.
SpaceX, through a bunch of self-dealing around xAI, owns Twitter, which is essentially a money-pit operating at a loss. The “X: the anything app” has so far not raised its revenue through subscriptions, not launched the promised video/new presence, and not become the next PayPal.
xAI, which owns Grok, is also operating at a loss, but that hides a bigger risk, and that the company could sustain huge liabilities, regulatory barriers, and criminal charges in the future over Grok’s ability to generate deepfake porn. This is not even the only risk — their data center in Memphis is an environmental disaster for the locals, and it doesn’t take much imagination to foresee lawsuits or criminal sanctions on the facility.
The S-1 for SpaceX includes a fair amount of information about Starlink: over 9600 satellites in its constellation now, operating in over 164 countries, with a total of 10.3 million subscribers. That’s an average of about 63,000 subscribers per country, which doesn’t seem likely to be covering the costs of launching all that hardware.
As for the SpaceX launch business, their bread and butter launches are very likely a fairly low-margin business, even if their reusable hardware is cutting costs as expected. The real money is in heavy launch, but they keep blowing those rockets up, and now are endangering future NASA plans. Competition in both areas is eroding their lead, just like Tesla squandered its lead in EVs.
The Risks section of the SpaceX S-1 goes into some detail about SpaceX governance, and just how much decision making power and voting power is held by Elon Musk. Shareholders are at risk of holding the bag with no way to change course using new leadership.

Frankly, given all these points, I think your gambling dollar is better spent on Polymarket. There are huge risks involved with this company, and like other Musk properties, rather a lot of hype. My advice is always – 1) research carefully and read between the lines, and 2) Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose.

Oh, and always remember, the brokerage gets their commission whether you are gaining or losing money. Be careful out there.

This year’s WWDC conference kicks off next Monday morning, and I have really no predictions about what will be said or introduced. All eyes have been on Apple’s AI strategy, and the fate or next generation of Siri, and of course Tim Cook’s departure in September 2026.

At this moment, AAPL is trading at 310.26, after hitting a 52-week high of 316.94 today. Investors seem to be anticipating major announcements around AI, but Apple’s strategy has been undergoing a lot of flux. Apparently Apple will be working with Alphabet to build a custom LLM for Siri, and we’ll be hearing more about it.

What hasn’t been discussed as much is that Apple has been steadily beefing up their device hardware to be able to run AI on-device, and iPhone sales are up 22% year-to-year second quarter. Add the introduction of their most popular laptop model in years, if ever, the MacBook Neo. Sales are up, and not necessarily in anticipation of new AI features.

I expect there will be an introduction of the upcoming CEO, John Ternus. As the VP of Hardware Engineering, he’s been as important to Tim Cook’s tenure as Cook was to Steve Jobs. Cook’s understanding of global supply chains and manufacturing saved Apple. The cost of manufacturing in the US was killing them. Leveraging lessons he learned at Compaq, Cook basically eliminated the “Apple Tax,” and made Apple’s devices more competitive.

Similarly, John Ternus has implemented a pipeline of hardware that has set Apple apart in performance and power consumption from its competitors.

As for Apple’s AI announcements, you can expect that Apple is trying to prevent the impending AI bubble from affecting their products and services. Keeping control of the models, processing as much as possible on-device, and maintaining user privacy are all factors.

Given their missteps over the last couple of years in delivering what they’ve promised with AI, it’s likely that Monday’s announcements will be relatively cautious. This will, of course, disappoint the stock market, but it’s not clear how much most customers care about this. It certainly hasn’t slowed phone sales.

I’m figuring there will be some incremental improvements, nothing gasp-worthy. I don’t expect Tim Cook to make any announcement that is going to raise the stock price appreciably, Wall Street is still enamored with AI and not focused on what it does for real people using real products. Meanwhile, those $599 MacBook Neos are selling like crazy.